Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?
Toby Ord examines whether the costs of AI agents are rising exponentially alongside their increasing task capabilities, as measured by METR’s time-horizon benchmark. Analyzing METR data reveals that while AI models can handle progressively longer human-equivalent tasks, their hourly costs often rise sharply—sometimes approaching or exceeding human labor costs—suggesting that improvements in AI performance may come with unsustainable increases in compute expense. This indicates a growing divergence between what AI can achieve in principle and what is economically practical for real-world applications.








